Picking up where we left off in our last webinar, we expand the macroeconomic analysis with new data points and include PPI, commodity price changes and illustrate the combined effects on corporate profit margins. How does all this impact the corporate margin cycle? We provide the analysis for the broader S&P 500 as well as the Energy, Health Care, Information Technology, Utilities and Materials sectors.
Despite the recent rally in equities off the June 2022 lows, 10-year – 2-year treasury yield spreads are pricing the strongest forewarning of a recession since the dotcom implosion. What are the analytical issues and how do they move through the business cycle and turn into a recessionary threat?