Market Strategy Series

Is a Recession Priced into the S&P 500?

Think a recession is currently priced into the S&P 500? See the Pacific Point Research Lab in action as we cut through the speculation by sharing the analytical framework we use to determine warranted valuations for the broader S&P 500.

EPS Growth & The Share Buyback Conundrum

With the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 signed into law, the 1% excise tax coupled with weaker CEO confidence in the economic outlook may cause a slowdown in buybacks in the quarters to come. What does this mean in terms of EPS growth for U.S. corporations and the broader S&P 500?

Recession Risks Part 2 – It’s all About the Corporate Margin Cycle

Picking up where we left off in our last webinar, we expand the macroeconomic analysis with new data points and include PPI, commodity price changes and illustrate the combined effects on corporate profit margins. How does all this impact the corporate margin cycle? We provide the analysis for the broader S&P 500 as well as the Energy, Health Care, Information Technology, Utilities and Materials sectors.

Recession Risks – Credit Markets at Odds with Equity Markets

Despite the recent rally in equities off the June 2022 lows, 10-year – 2-year treasury yield spreads are pricing the strongest forewarning of a recession since the dotcom implosion. What are the analytical issues and how do they move through the business cycle and turn into a recessionary threat?